Ko te tau 2025 te tau matua mō te rāngai pūngao me ngā rauemi taiao o te ao. Ko te pakanga tonu i waenganui i a Rūhia me Ukraine, te whakamutu i ngā pakanga i Gaza, me te hui COP30 e tū mai nei i Brazil — he mea nui tēnei mō te kaupapa here āhuarangi — kei te hanga katoa i tētahi whenua pōuri. I taua wā tonu, ko te tīmatanga o te wā tuarua o Trump, me ngā nekehanga wawe mō ngā tari pakanga me ngā taake hokohoko, kua tāpirihia he paparanga hou o te taumahatanga whenua.
I waenganui i tēnei horopaki uaua, he uaua ngā whakataunga a ngā kamupene pūngao mō te tohatoha pūtea puta noa i ngā hinu pūmua me ngā haumitanga waro-iti. Whai muri i ngā mahi M&A i pakaruhia e ngā rekoata i roto i ngā marama 18 kua pahure ake nei, kei te kaha tonu te whakakotahitanga i waenga i ngā kamupene hinu nui, ā, ka horapa wawe pea ki te maina. I taua wā anō, kei te akiaki te pokapū raraunga me te puāwaitanga o te AI i te tono tere mō te hiko ma i te ao, me te tautoko kaupapa here pakari.
Anei ngā ia au matua e rima ka hanga i te rāngai pūngao i te tau 2025:
1. Te Hurihanga o ngā Mākete e ngā Kaupapahere Whenua me ngā Kaupapahere Tauhokohoko
He tino mōrearea ngā mahere taripa hou a Trump ki te tipu o te ao, ka taea te whakaiti i te 50 ngā tohu pūtake mai i te whakawhānui o te GDP, ā, ka heke iho ki te 3%. Tērā pea ka whakaitihia te tono hinu o te ao mā te 500,000 oko ia rā — tata ki te tipu o te haurua tau. I taua wā, ko te wehenga atu o Amerika i te Whakaaetanga o Parī he iti noa te tūponotanga ka whakapiki ake ngā whenua i ā rātou whāinga NDC i mua i te COP30 kia hoki anō ki te huarahi tika mō te 2°C. Ahakoa te whakanoho a Trump i te rangimārie ki Ukraine me te Middle East hei kaupapa matua, ka taea e tētahi whakataunga te whakanui ake i te tuku taonga me te whakaheke i ngā utu.
2. Te Pikinga o te Pūtea, engari he Pōturi ake te Tere
E matapaetia ana ka neke atu i te USD 1.5 trillion te haumitanga katoa o te pūngao me ngā rauemi taiao i te tau 2025, he pikinga 6% mai i te tau 2024 — he rekoata hou tēnei, engari kua puhoi te tipu ki te haurua o te tere i kitea i te tīmatanga o tēnei tekau tau. Kei te tino tupato ngā kamupene, e whakaatu ana i te koretake mō te tere o te whakawhiti pūngao. I piki ake ngā haumitanga waro-iti ki te 50% o te whakapaunga pūngao katoa i te tau 2021 engari kua noho pumau mai i taua wā. Ko te whakatutuki i ngā whāinga o Parī me piki ake te 60% o aua haumitanga i te tau 2030.
3. E whakaatu ana ngā kamupene hinu nui o Ūropi i ā rātou urupare
I te mea e whakamahi ana ngā kamupene hinu nunui o Amerika i ngā hea kaha hei hoko i ngā kamupene motuhake o roto, kei te aro katoa ngā kanohi ki a Shell, BP me Equinor. Ko tā rātou kaupapa matua i tēnei wā ko te manawanui pūtea — te arotau i ngā putea mā te hoko atu i ngā rawa ehara i te matua, te whakapai ake i te whai huatanga o ngā utu, me te whakatipu i te rere moni kore utu hei tautoko i ngā hokinga mai o ngā kaipupuri hea. Heoi anō, ko te ngoikore o ngā utu hinu me te hau ka taea te whakaoho i tētahi whakaaetanga whakarerekētanga a ngā kamupene nui o Ūropi i te mutunga o te tau 2025.
4. Kua Whakaritea te Hinu, te Hau me ngā Konganuku mō ngā Utu Hurihuri
Kei te anga atu a OPEC+ ki tētahi atu tau wero e ngana ana ki te pupuri i a Brent ki runga ake i te USD 80/bbl mō te tau tuawhā karapīpiti. Nā te kaha o te tuku mai i waho o te OPEC, e matapaetia ana ka eke a Brent ki te USD 70-75/bbl i te tau 2025. Tērā pea ka kaha ake te whakawhāititanga o ngā mākete hau i mua i te taenga mai o te kaha LNG hou i te tau 2026, ka piki ake ngā utu, ka piki haere hoki te pikinga. I tīmata ngā utu parahi i te tau 2025 i te USD 4.15/lb, he heke iho i ngā tihi o te tau 2024, engari e matapaetia ana ka hoki anō ki te toharite USD 4.50/lb nā te kaha o te tono a te US me Haina e tere ake ana i te tuku mai i ngā maina hou.
5. Te Hiko me ngā Pūngao Whakahou: He Tau o te Whakateretere i te Auahatanga
Kua roa te puhoi o te whakaaetanga me te hononga e aukati ana i te tipu o te pūngao hou. Kei te puta ake ngā tohu e tohu ana ko te tau 2025 pea te wā hurihanga. Kua piki ake ngā whakaaetanga hau o uta e ngā whakahoutanga a Tiamana mā te 150% mai i te tau 2022, i te mea kei te tīmata ngā whakahoutanga FERC o Amerika ki te whakapoto i ngā wā hononga - me ētahi ISO e whakatinana ana i te aunoatanga hei tapahi i ngā rangahau mai i ngā tau ki ngā marama. Ko te tere o te whakawhānui i ngā pokapū raraunga kei te akiaki hoki i ngā kāwanatanga, inā koa i te US, ki te whakatairanga i te tuku hiko. I roto i te wā, ka taea e tēnei te whakawhāiti i ngā mākete hau me te whakapiki i ngā utu hiko, ka noho hei wāhi pakanga tōrangapū rite tonu ki ngā utu penehīni i mua i ngā pōtitanga o te tau kua hipa.
I te whanaketanga tonu o te whenua, me tere te whakatere a ngā kaipakihi pūngao i ēnei whai wāhitanga me ngā mōrearea kia mau ai tō rātou heke mai i tēnei wā whakahirahira.
Wā tuku: Hōngongoi-04-2025
